TLT Analysis by @bravosresearch

The analysis discusses the US Treasury bond market, particularly focusing on the TLT ETF. It notes that US Treasury bond prices have been declining since 2020 due to a record debt burden. The analysis highlights a maturity wall of $7 trillion in 2025, combined with ongoing record deficit spending. The chart indicates a decline to 50% and suggests the worst may still be yet to come. The analysis notes that while government receipts exceeded outlays in April, with tariffs contributing $16 billion, this increase is not substantial enough to alter the overall financial outlook. The government's increased income from taxes is noted to be from a lot of deferred tax payments, and that the impact of tariffs on the bond trajectory is little to none. The analysis concludes that the potential for further downside remains given underlying financial concerns, with prices potentially breaching the October 2023 lows. The recommendation is a bearish view for the foreseeable months.