The analysis discusses AVAX's recent breakout above the yearly rolling VWAP at 26.6. The speaker combines this with positive fundamentals, including high DEX trading volumes and TVL exceeding $2 billion. The target is inferred from the major resistance level between 30 and 31.5. It also states that a weak reaction at the yearly VWAP and higher than expected inflation would be a major flag and would probably invalidate the analysis.